A striking new 2028 hypothetical primary poll suggests that Kamala Harris may be losing ground in a place once considered her political stronghold. According to a survey conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, Gavin Newsom leads Harris 28% to 9% among California Democrats in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup.
The findings are notable given Harris’s deep roots in California politics. Before serving as vice president, she held statewide office as attorney general and later represented the state in the U.S. Senate. Her long-standing ties to California had made it a presumed base of support for any future presidential run.
The poll may signal emerging vulnerabilities for Harris as she considers a potential 2028 bid. Newsom, despite facing mixed reviews for his tenure as governor, appears to benefit from a perception among Democratic voters that he is a more effective counterweight to Donald Trump and his political movement. Poll co-director Cristina G. Mora noted that many Californians view Newsom as the strongest voice to challenge Trump-style politics on a national stage.
Additional factors may also be shaping Harris’s standing. The poll points to lingering effects from her 2024 presidential defeat, as well as broader voter biases that can affect women and candidates of color. These dynamics may be contributing to softer support, even within her home state.
The poll’s release coincides with a period of relative quiet for Harris following her loss to Trump. She has focused on promoting her campaign memoir, 107 Days, and advancing initiatives such as Headquarters, aimed at combating misinformation. While Harris has ruled out a run for California governor, calling it “not my calling,” she has continued to hint at another presidential campaign.
Despite the California numbers, Harris still holds an advantage in national Democratic primary polling, though her support among independent voters has dipped compared to late 2025 levels.
