Renowned historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known for his perfect record in predicting U.S. presidential elections over the past 40 years, has declared that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.
Using his famed “13 Keys to the White House” model, Lichtman has once again made a bold prediction, stating that Harris, the current Vice President, is set to become the next President of the United States.
Lichtman’s model, developed with his colleague Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, has accurately predicted every election since 1984, including Donald Trump’s surprise 2016 win.
The model consists of 13 key factors that disregard opinion polls and pundit predictions. Instead, it focuses on large-scale factors like social unrest, foreign policy successes, and economic performance to assess the incumbent party’s chances of retaining power.
According to Lichtman, for the Democratic party to lose, Harris must fail six out of the 13 keys. Currently, she is down only three: incumbent charisma, party mandate, and incumbency status.
Lichtman noted that the incumbency key flipped when President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, and midterm gains also negatively impacted the Democrats.
Despite these, the short-term economy and policy changes under Biden remain favorable, tipping the scales in Harris’s favor.
However, Lichtman cautioned that foreign policy could still sway the outcome, with the Biden Administration’s involvement in the ongoing Gaza conflict being a potential game-changer.
Nevertheless, based on historical factors and without relying on polling data, Lichtman believes that Kamala Harris will keep the White House under Democratic control in the 2024 election.
Lichtman’s 13 Keys model has faced scrutiny in the past, particularly during the contested 2000 election. Yet, the historian remains confident, attributing the 2000 controversy to Florida’s recount decision, which he claims was not a failure of his model but a failure of voter intent.
Despite the uncertainties, Lichtman’s prediction of a Kamala Harris victory adds a new twist to the 2024 race.
