Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump, leading 48% to 43%, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll. This marks a significant eight-point shift in the presidential race since late June, when Trump held a nearly four-point lead over President Joe Biden in the same survey.
Harris’s slight lead is driven by notable gains among key demographic groups traditionally important to Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters, as well as young people. The most dramatic shift occurred among individuals with annual incomes under $20,000. In June, Trump had a three-point advantage over Biden among this group, but by August, Harris had turned that into a 23-point lead over Trump.
Harris has achieved what Biden has struggled to do this year: lead Trump in the polls. Although her lead is within the margin of error, it reflects a surge in support following the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which energized the party.
The poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters via landline and cell phone from Sunday to Wednesday, has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. As the general election draws near, the focus has shifted to likely voters, as opposed to the registered voters surveyed in earlier polls. Without rounding the results, Harris’s lead is closer to four points than five, at 47.6% to 43.3%.
“With the ‘Brat Summer’ of Kamala Harris emojis winding down, young people, persons of color, and low-income households have swung dramatically toward the vice president,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “These same demographics were emphasized and woven together by numerous speakers at the convention.”
According to the poll per USA Today:
- Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36
- Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by 2 points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
- Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%.
