Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are emerging as the frontrunners in their respective U.S. Senate primary races, according to new public polling released Monday, just days before early voting begins on Feb. 17.
The survey, conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, shows Paxton leading incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by 7 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters. In a statewide sample of 550 voters surveyed between Jan. 20 and Jan. 31, Paxton captured 38 percent support compared with Cornyn’s 31 percent. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston trailed in third with 17 percent. About 12 percent of respondents said they remain undecided.
Across the aisle, Crockett holds an 8-point advantage over state Rep. James Talarico in the Democratic primary. The poll of 550 likely Democratic primary voters found 47 percent backing Crockett, a Dallas congresswoman, while 39 percent favored Talarico. Another 12 percent were undecided. The results mark a shift from recent polling that showed both contests essentially tied.
The survey suggests Paxton would maintain a strong edge if the Republican primary heads to a runoff and indicates he leads Cornyn across nearly all key demographic groups, with the exception of Latino voters. Among Latino Republicans, Cornyn led Paxton by 7 points.
On the Democratic side, Crockett led Talarico among most demographic groups, though Talarico performed better with white voters and those holding advanced degrees. Latino voters favored Crockett by a 46 percent to 37 percent margin, with 15 percent undecided. Previous polling had shown Talarico leading among Latino Democrats following an endorsement from the state’s largest Hispanic Democratic organization.
In hypothetical general election matchups, the poll found little difference in outcomes regardless of the candidates. Both Paxton and Cornyn were shown narrowly defeating Crockett by 2 points, while Paxton performed slightly better than Cornyn in a matchup against Talarico. Between 7 percent and 8 percent of likely voters said they were unsure in those scenarios.
The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.18 percentage points.
Beyond the Senate races, a separate survey of 1,502 likely general election voters showed a closely divided electorate on President Donald Trump’s performance, with 49 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving. Majorities expressed disapproval of his handling of foreign policy, the economy, international trade, and the cost of living, while 51 percent approved of his approach to immigration and border security.
