Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in a new national poll released by Reuters/Ipsos, conducted among 4,129 U.S. adults between Oct. 16 and Oct. 21.
The poll, which has a margin of error of 2 percent, shows Harris with 46 percent support compared to Trump’s 43 percent.
Among likely voters, both candidates gained support, with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 45 percent.
However, political analysts caution that Harris’ slim lead may not be enough to secure victory in the Electoral College, as seen in previous elections.
Notably, Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote against Trump in 2016 but lost the presidency.
The polling landscape is particularly unpredictable this year, reflecting past trends where Trump’s support was often underestimated in prior elections.
The current poll indicates that while Harris is favored for addressing political extremism and threats to democracy (42 percent to Trump’s 35 percent), Trump appears to have an edge in economic and immigration issues, with 46 percent of respondents preferring his approach on the economy and 48 percent on immigration.
Democratic voter turnout may play a critical role in the upcoming election.
An encouraging 87 percent of Democratic respondents expressed certainty about voting, compared to 84 percent of Republicans. This level of enthusiasm mirrors trends leading up to the 2020 election when voter turnout was pivotal.
As early voting begins in several states, over 17.1 million ballots have already been cast.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages show Harris’ national lead has narrowed to 1.6 percent, with effective ties in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.
