In a pivotal moment leading up to the Nov. 5 election, Vice President Kamala Harris has achieved a series of notable polling gains, marking a crucial momentum boost in the race for the White House.
Over the past 24 hours, Harris emerged as the front-runner in several battleground states and received a significant edge in a new Iowa poll, intensifying the contest against Republican candidate Donald Trump.
London-based pollster Focaldata released a “mega poll” with a sample size of over 31,000 likely voters, revealing Harris as the leading candidate in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
While her leads in these states were narrow, Harris claimed a notable 51 percent backing in Michigan, outpacing Trump’s 46.5 percent, according to POLITICO.
In a surprising result out of Iowa, Harris also leads in a traditionally Republican stronghold. A recent Selzer & Co. poll for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom showed Harris at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent among 808 likely Iowa voters, with a 3.4-point margin of error.
Polling analyst Nate Silver called the result “shocking” and praised Selzer & Co. president Ann Selzer’s reputation for reliable polling data.
Silver highlighted that Selzer “has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right,” noting her high standing among pollsters.
Meanwhile, the final New York Times/Siena College poll underscores Harris’s strength in several other battlegrounds, with leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia, while she is tied with Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Conducted from October 24 to November 2, this poll surveyed 7,878 likely voters across seven states, each with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points.
The New York Times/Siena College poll is ranked as one of the most accurate polling sources by FiveThirtyEight, holding an A+ rating and a high level of transparency in its data.
Nevertheless, Silver urged caution regarding Trump’s polling figures, pointing out that Trump’s base often includes voters with lower civic engagement who may be less likely to participate in polling.
In national polls, Harris maintains a slim lead over Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest aggregate, with 47.9 percent compared to Trump’s 46.9 percent, signaling an exceptionally tight race.
With just days remaining, Harris’s recent polling gains provide her campaign with critical momentum, particularly in battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election.
