Vice President Kamala Harris has received promising news in the battleground state of Wisconsin, where a recent poll indicates she has gained a significant lead over former President Donald Trump.
The survey, conducted by The MassINC Polling Group, shows Harris leading Trump by 7 percentage points in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, with the results reflecting 53% for Harris compared to 46% for Trump.
Poll Details and Context
The poll was conducted in the days following the candidates’ first debate on September 10 and surveyed 800 likely voters from September 12 to 18, with a margin of error of 3.8%.
In a broader multi-candidate race that included former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Harris maintained a 6-point lead with 51% to Trump’s 45%.
Harris’s current standing is critical as Wisconsin is considered one of the most competitive states ahead of the November election.
The state has a history of swinging between parties, having flipped to the Democrats in 2020 after Trump won it in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
Comparative Polling Insights
While Harris holds a lead in this particular poll, other recent surveys present a more complex picture. A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll indicated a tie at 47% between Harris and Trump, while an Emerson College poll showed Trump slightly ahead at 50% to Harris’s 49%.
Despite these mixed results, FiveThirtyEight’s analysis suggests Harris has an average lead of 1.8% in Wisconsin, estimating her chances of winning the state at 61%.
National Trends and Projections
Across national polls, Harris has maintained a slight advantage over Trump. Pollster Nate Silver predicts a 53.2% chance of victory for Harris in November, compared to Trump’s 46.6%.
The FiveThirtyEight model similarly favors Harris with a 58% chance of winning, while giving Trump a 42% chance.
As the election approaches, Wisconsin remains a focal point for both campaigns, with its electoral votes critical for success.
Harris’s lead, although promising, is evidence of the ongoing volatility of the race as both candidates work to secure voter support.
