According to The Economist’s latest election forecast, Kamala Harris’ prospects of winning the 2024 presidential election have taken a hit.
The model now shows Harris “neck and neck” with former President Donald Trump, just weeks before Election Day.
The forecast, which combines state and national opinion polls with economic data, predicts Harris will secure between 196 and 367 Electoral College votes, with a median outcome of 270—the number needed to win. Trump, on the other hand, is projected to earn between 171 and 342 Electoral College votes, with a median outcome of 268, marking an improvement from earlier projections. Last week, Trump was forecasted to receive 264 votes, and two weeks ago, 257 votes.
The Economist model is based on over 10,000 simulations, with the chance of an Electoral College tie remaining under 1 percent. Newsweek reached out to both the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment on the updated forecasts.
Adding to Harris’ challenges, a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Trump leading in Michigan by three points and Wisconsin by two points, both critical battleground states that President Joe Biden won in 2020.
Harris did manage a three-point lead in Pennsylvania, another key state. The poll surveyed likely voters in early October, polling 1,007 in Michigan, 1,073 in Wisconsin, and 1,412 in Pennsylvania.
The downward trend in Harris’ polling performance is echoed by election analysis from FiveThirtyEight, which showed her chances of winning dropping from 64 percent in mid-September to just 53 percent as of Wednesday.
Bookmakers have also adjusted their odds in favor of Trump. Sky Bet, William Hill, and 888sport now offer 4/5 odds on Trump winning the presidency, an improvement from the 10/11 odds posted earlier this month.
Harris received a significant boost from former President Barack Obama, who made his first campaign appearance on her behalf at a Pennsylvania rally targeting Black voters.
Obama called on male voters, particularly Black men, to support Harris, suggesting that hesitation might stem from discomfort with the idea of a woman president.
In a pointed contrast, Trump gave a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, where he criticized Harris, suggesting that a Harris presidency would turn the U.S. into “a mess,” likening it to Detroit, which he compared unfavorably to China.
