Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, launched its betting odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary last week—and Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing behind five other potential contenders.
Despite the general election being more than three years away, over $600,000 has already been wagered on the Democratic field. California Governor Gavin Newsom currently leads the Polymarket odds with a 21 percent chance of securing the nomination. He’s followed by progressive favorite Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17 percent and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 13 percent. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro sits at 6 percent, while Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Harris each hold 5 percent odds.
Though Harris is the highest-polling declared or likely candidate in most traditional surveys, her Polymarket position suggests uncertainty about her political future. Speculation continues over whether she will mount another presidential campaign or pivot to a gubernatorial run in California. A decision is expected by late summer.
The latest McLaughlin poll, conducted July 9–14 among 1,000 general election voters, found Harris leading with 25 percent support—down from 30 percent in June. Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez trailed with 9 percent each, and Buttigieg at 8 percent. But a separate poll from AtlasIntel, conducted July 13–18 with 1,935 respondents, showed a different picture: 27 percent of Democrats favored Buttigieg, followed by 19 percent for Ocasio-Cortez, 16 percent for Newsom, and just 15 percent for Harris.
The early activity comes as potential candidates begin making trips to early-voting states like South Carolina and building fundraising networks ahead of formal announcements, which are unlikely before the 2026 midterms.
Polymarket’s broader forecasts give Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning the presidency in 2028, with Vice President JD Vance leading the GOP field. The platform notably predicted Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 race.
Asked about her political plans earlier this year, Harris said while visiting wildfire sites in Los Angeles, “My plans are to be in touch with my community…regardless of the office I hold.”
Online, prominent Democratic commentator Harry Sisson weighed in: “Gavin Newsom is ahead. He would be a terrific nominee and an amazing president.”
