In a surprising international twist on U.S. election predictions, a new mega-poll from British pollster Focaldata is tipping Kamala Harris for a narrow victory.
Utilizing a polling method called multilevel regression and post-stratification, or MRP, Focaldata surveyed over 31,000 voters across the United States, making it one of the largest polls conducted for the 2024 race.
This MRP method, which previously gained traction in the U.K. after correctly forecasting major political shifts like the 2017 British parliamentary outcome, leverages demographic data to estimate state-level results based on a nationwide sample.
According to Focaldata’s findings, Harris leads in key battlegrounds like Michigan and Nevada, with slight advantages in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, Donald Trump holds a razor-thin edge in Georgia and North Carolina, making it one of the tightest races in recent memory.
Kamala Harris appears to have garnered surprising support among older white women, while Trump gains traction among younger Black and Hispanic men, underscoring the shifting demographics in American voting patterns.
With a divided voter focus, Trump remains the choice for handling issues like immigration and inflation, while Harris draws support on topics such as climate change and healthcare.
“While we’re seeing a ‘lean Democrat’ scenario,” noted Focaldata’s Chief Research Officer James Kanagasooriam, “the margins are so thin that even a minor polling error could hand Trump the presidency.”
Given recent polling challenges, he suggests that “herding” might be in effect—where pollsters’ projections gravitate towards a tight race to avoid errors, potentially underplaying either candidate’s real lead.
As election day nears, Focaldata’s findings highlight both the promise and pitfalls of MRP polling. Although MRP has accurately predicted political upheavals in the U.K., critics caution that it remains as fallible as traditional methods.
Joe Twyman, a co-founder of YouGov and early adopter of MRP, reminded observers, “Polling is all about the right questions at the right time,” underscoring that even innovative polling can miss the mark if key elements aren’t aligned.
With only days to go until ballots are cast, Focaldata’s mega-poll is a sobering reminder of the volatile nature of this election. Whether the U.K.’s MRP model will be a bellwether or a bust in the U.S. remains to be seen.
