As the 2024 presidential election approaches, polling data shows a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
With only two weeks left, Trump is now considered a slight favorite in several polling models. However, the competition remains too close to call, particularly in key battleground states.
Trump has gained ground in national polls, with three recent surveys showing him leading Harris. According to polling aggregator 538, Harris’ national lead has shrunk to 1.8 points (48.2% to 46.4%), down from 2.4 points a week earlier.
Similarly, forecasting models from both 538 and Decision Desk HQ/The Hill now give Trump a narrow edge, with Trump having a 53% chance of victory according to 538’s model, and a 52% chance in Decision Desk HQ’s forecast.
In the critical swing states that could decide the election, the results are even tighter. Harris holds slight leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
The shifting polls suggest a highly unpredictable outcome.
Both campaigns have been contacted for comment, but the race remains on a knife edge as Election Day approaches.
Kamala Harris’ Path to Victory
Despite narrowing poll numbers, Vice President Kamala Harris still has a clear route to securing the presidency.
Her strongest chances lie in winning three critical battleground states that traditionally lean Democratic: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
These “blue wall” states are essential for Harris to maintain her path to 270 electoral votes, barring any surprise victories elsewhere.
Harris also remains slightly ahead in Nevada, another important swing state, and maintains a national polling lead—albeit a shrinking one.
To secure a win, her campaign will need to focus heavily on mobilizing key Democratic voter bases, including Black voters and women, as well as addressing concerns about the economy that have bolstered Trump’s momentum.
Polls suggest that the race is still fluid, with small shifts in the final days potentially giving Harris the edge she needs to maintain her lead and carry the swing states.
Despite Trump’s gains, Harris’ campaign is banking on voter turnout and enthusiasm, especially in urban and suburban areas, to push her over the top.
