Just over a month after the field for the Los Angeles mayoral race finalized, new polling suggests incumbent Mayor Karen Bass could be facing an uphill battle. The latest Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll shows Bass leading with 25%, followed by City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 17%, reality TV star and Palisades Fire victim Spencer Pratt at 14%, community organizer Rae Huang at 8%, and tech entrepreneur Adam Miller at 6%. Roughly a quarter of voters remain undecided.
“Generally speaking, throughout history, Angelenos tend to re-elect their mayors,” said Dan Schnur, a political communications lecturer at USC and UC Berkeley. “You have to go back more than 20 years, to 2005, to find the last mayor, James Hahn, who was not re-elected. But this poll, and this election, isn’t about broader progress on issues like housing and homelessness.”
Schnur emphasized that this race is largely shaped by Bass’ handling of the recent Palisades Fire. According to the poll, only 31% of voters view Bass favorably, while 56% hold an unfavorable opinion of the mayor. “These are very discouraging, if not downright devastating, poll numbers for Karen Bass. She’s running ahead of her opponents only because they are not very well known,” Schnur said.
In an interview with Eyewitness News earlier this month, Bass acknowledged the challenge but expressed determination. “I think the overall electorate is in a very sour mood. But it just shows me that I have work to do, and I’m ready for the work. I have always worked very hard. I’m a workhorse, not a show horse,” she said.
Raman, who entered the race just six weeks ago, said the poll is encouraging and reflects growing support for her campaign. “To see that my candidacy is already in the top two is really exciting,” she said. “It shows that voters are engaging with the message that change is needed in Los Angeles, and we’ll continue to talk about building a better, more affordable, functional city for every resident.”
The first candidate debate took place Monday night, though Bass and Pratt did not participate. The primary election is scheduled for June 2. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a November runoff.
