A new poll shows former President Donald Trump’s once-dominant lead in Florida narrowing, as Vice President Kamala Harris gains traction among key voter demographics in the state.
According to a survey conducted by the Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication, Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab), and Mainstreet Research USA, Harris is closing in on Trump, with 47% of likely voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 50%.
Political analysts suggest this shift could signal a competitive race in a state that has leaned Republican in recent years. Dr. Kevin Wagner, Professor of Political Science and co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, commented on the findings:
“The narrowing gap between Trump and Harris is consistent with the tightening we have seen in other states. If this trend holds, we may see a competitive race in Florida.”
The poll highlights distinct voting patterns based on gender and race. Harris leads among women with 53% backing her, compared to 43% for Trump.
Additionally, she has a commanding 77% support from Black voters, while Trump secures just 17% of that demographic.
Conversely, Trump remains favored by male voters, holding a 56% to 39% advantage over Harris. Among Hispanic voters, the race is currently tied, with each candidate receiving 49% support.
Dr. Dukhong Kim, Associate Professor of Political Science at FAU, noted that Harris’ gains primarily stem from solidifying traditional Democratic bases, including women, minorities, and younger voters.
“Kamala Harris restores the traditional base of the Democratic Party,” Kim said, adding that while Trump’s support remains steady, Harris has made notable strides within these key groups.
The poll, conducted between August 10 and 11, surveyed 1,055 registered Florida voters, with a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level.
Notably, a similar poll conducted in April showed President Joe Biden trailing Trump by 8 percentage points, highlighting a significant improvement for the Democratic campaign since Harris became the focus.
Florida remains a crucial battleground state in the upcoming election, and both parties are strategizing to secure its 30 electoral votes.
The poll’s release coincides with growing tensions in the state’s Senate race, where Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has launched efforts to unseat Republican Senator Rick Scott.
As the 2024 election approaches, Florida’s evolving political landscape will be closely watched, as shifts in voter sentiment could have national implications.
