One of the most popular and most reliable pollsters in the country just released it’s latest survey – and it’s looking like a win for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Conducted by Selzer & Co., the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll finds former President Donald Trump at 47% to the Democratic nominee’s 43% within the margin of error in a state Trump won twice. The poll was conducted last week, before Sunday’s assassination attempt against Trump.
Although Iowa is unlikely to play a key role in November, the fact that Selzer’s poll found a tight race in a state where Trump has traditionally dominated could be a promising sign for Harris, both in terms of polling accuracy and her prospects in neighboring Wisconsin. The significance of the Selzer poll lies in its reliability at a time when many pollsters have struggled. Four years ago, Selzer accurately predicted Trump’s 7-point lead in Iowa just before the election, while other polls showed Joe Biden in a stronger position. At the time, I noted that this one poll gave Trump supporters hope and made Democrats nervous.
Democrats’ concerns were valid. Not only did Trump win Iowa by 8 points, but he also outperformed polling in Wisconsin, nearly winning a state where pre-election surveys showed him trailing by significant margins. Trump would exceed expectations in several other battleground states as well.
A similar pattern emerged in 2016. Selzer’s final poll had Trump leading by 7 points in Iowa, and he ultimately won the state by 9 points, outperforming most swing-state polls and securing his victory over Hillary Clinton.
In July, an op-ed penned by MSNBC’s Zeeshan Aleem is shedding new light on new surveys showing Vice President Kamala Harris is surpassing President Joe Biden in approval ratings.
In a poll conducted by Blueprint, registered voters were evenly split, with 50% believing she would do a better job “bringing down prices” on goods and services and 50% believing Trump would be more effective in this area.
“The upside for Harris is huge: Voters do not hold her accountable for Biden’s perceived failures on inflation, and she can run hard on economic messaging,” Blueprint lead pollster Evan Roth Smith told Semafor.
Harris matching Trump on the issue of inflation might not seem like a big win, but it actually is, Aleem writes. He added that numerous polls have indicated that Biden has been perceived as weak against Trump on economic issues, particularly inflation. Despite the fact that inflation has decreased, wages have risen, and the economy is strong by many measures, including a low unemployment rate, Biden struggled to regain voter trust on economic matters. It appears that, for some voters, the memory of high inflation earlier in Biden’s term has lingered and is difficult to shake off, especially with housing inflation remaining high.
