Vice President Kamala Harris is running neck and neck with former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a state he carried in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
According to the latest polling averages from RealClearPolitics, Harris and Trump are currently tied in the battleground state, signaling a competitive race heading into the 2024 presidential election.
North Carolina, traditionally a Republican-leaning state, last voted Democratic at the presidential level in 2008 when Barack Obama won a narrow victory.
Despite Republicans winning the state in the last three elections, the margin has remained tight, making it a closely watched battleground in 2024. In 2020, Trump edged out President Joe Biden by just 1.3 percentage points.
Polls Reflect a Tight Race
As of Friday, RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows a statistical tie between Harris and Trump in North Carolina. Two polls included in the average give Harris a slight edge.
A New York Times/Siena College survey, conducted from August 8 to 14 among 655 likely voters, shows Harris leading Trump 46 percent to 44 percent. Similarly, a Cook Political Report poll conducted from July 26 to August 2 among 403 likely voters also shows Harris with a 46-44 percent lead.
However, other recent polls favor Trump. A Carolina Journal survey conducted from August 4 to 5 among 600 likely voters shows Trump ahead by three points, at 47 percent compared to Harris’ 44 percent. A Bloomberg poll from July 24 to 28 among 706 registered voters gives Trump a 1-point lead, at 45 percent to 44 percent.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows a similarly tight race, giving Harris a slight 0.2-point advantage. The Hill’s polling aggregate also shows a narrow lead for Harris, at 48 percent to Trump’s 46.9 percent.
Momentum Shifts Toward Harris
Harris’ recent surge has prompted Sabato’s Crystal Ball to reclassify North Carolina as a “toss-up” from its previous “Leans Republican” status.
Harris has been actively campaigning in swing states, including a recent rally in Raleigh, which may have contributed to her improved numbers in the state.
While North Carolina has leaned Republican in recent presidential elections, it does have a Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, who is retiring at the end of the year.
Polls currently show Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leading Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson in the race to succeed him.
Harris’ campaign has gained momentum since she assumed the top spot on the Democratic ticket following President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race in July.
Her candidacy has energized Democratic voters and boosted fundraising efforts, offering renewed optimism for Democrats heading into November.
