Following President Joe Biden’s underwhelming debate against former President Donald Trump, Democratic figures like Michelle Obama are gaining traction as potential replacements for the party’s nominee, just two months before the convention.
Biden, who would be 82 at his next inauguration, struggled with his performance, appearing confused and stumbling over responses.
Trump seized the opportunity to ridicule Biden, especially over his unclear answers on immigration and border security.
With Biden unable to capitalize on Trump’s controversial record, concerns about his age persist. A March New York Times poll indicated that 61% of Biden’s 2020 voters now believe he is “just too old” for another term.
Possible replacements being discussed include Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and former First Lady Michelle Obama.
Betting platform BetOnline.ag adjusted its 2024 election odds in real-time during the debate. Trump’s odds improved from -150 to -175, while Biden’s dropped from +130 to +300.
Meanwhile, the odds for Newsom, Obama, and Harris saw a boost. Paul Krishnamurty, a political oddsmaker at BetOnline, reported a surge in bets for Newsom and Obama.
Head-to-head betting matchups show promising odds for Newsom and Obama against Trump. Newsom’s odds are -140, while Obama’s stand at -250.
“Our professional bettors have been backing Obama for the last few months,” said Krishnamurty. “She was as high as 25/1 in early May and has since dropped to 7/1. Obama would be a significant loss for the book if she were elected.”
As of late Thursday, BetOnline’s 2024 election odds were as follows:
- Donald Trump: -175 (4/7)
- Joe Biden: +300 (3/1)
- Gavin Newsom: +700 (7/1)
- Michelle Obama: +1600 (16/1)
- Kamala Harris: +2000 (20/1)
- Hillary Clinton: +4000 (40/1)
- Gretchen Whitmer: +5000 (50/1)
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: +5000 (50/1)
- Nikki Haley: +9000 (90/1)
- Ron DeSantis: +20000 (200/1)
- Mark Cuban: +35000 (350/1)
- Jamie Dimon: +40000 (400/1)
- Liz Cheney: +50000 (500/1)
Biden’s odds also fell among other bookmakers. Pre-debate, Bet365 gave Biden a 13/8 chance of winning, which dropped to 10/3 by Friday morning, according to Oddschecker. Similar declines were noted with Sky Bet, William Hill, and Betfair.
Republicans have frequently mentioned Michelle Obama as a potential candidate. Following the debate, Senator Ted Cruz reiterated his prediction that Democrats might replace Biden with Obama.
“Watching Biden’s excruciating debate performance tonight, I believe the odds are now greater than 80% that the Dems dump Biden,” Cruz posted on X (formerly Twitter). “Nine months ago, on Verdict, I predicted that the Dems would replace Biden with Michelle Obama. I think that’s going to happen.”
Despite speculation, Obama has consistently denied any intention of running for president. Her office reaffirmed her support for Biden and Harris’ reelection campaign in a statement to NBC News in March and reiterated it to Newsweek recently.
Mark Shanahan, a U.S. politics expert, told Newsweek that the debate intensified concerns about Biden’s viability as a candidate.
“This is the most delicate and potentially dangerous time in modern Democratic Party history,” he said. “Before the debate, I would have said Biden was 100% certain to contest the 2024 election. However, after last night’s performance, Biden can’t possibly have more than a 50/50 chance.”
Shanahan warned that replacing Biden is complex, especially before the convention in August.
“No change can be made unless Biden chooses to step down,” he said. “If he does, there would be intense and robust debate behind the scenes before any new ticket is announced.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, whose popularity has waned, defended Biden’s record in a post-debate interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper.
“What we saw tonight was the president making a very clear contrast with Donald Trump on all the issues that matter to the American people. Yes, there was a slow start, but it was a strong finish,” Harris said. “Joe Biden is fighting on behalf of the American people on substance, on policy, on performance.”
