A recent YouGov poll offered a political reality check that many Republicans may be too quick to ignore. The survey, as reported in The Hill, showed former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the field of potential Democratic nominees for 2028 and defeating California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical primary by 12 points.
In an opinion piece penned by Douglas MacKinnon, for many Republicans, the reaction was likely laughter. Harris, after all, lost decisively to President Donald Trump in 2024. But politics has always been unpredictable, and in the age of Trump and social media, fortunes can change with astonishing speed, he wrote.
History offers a useful reminder, he acknowledged. In 2004, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean appeared unstoppable in the Democratic presidential primary. Dean energized young and progressive voters, especially because of his opposition to the Iraq War. Meanwhile, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry seemed politically finished.
Then everything changed.
MacKinnon believes Dean underperformed in the Iowa caucuses and delivered the infamous “Dean Scream,” a moment replayed endlessly in the days before the New Hampshire primary. His campaign collapsed almost overnight. Kerry, once written off, seized the momentum and went on to become the Democratic nominee, nearly defeating President George W. Bush in the general election.
That same type of reversal could happen again in 2028, the writer thinks.
Trump defeated Harris comfortably in 2024, but Trump will not be on the ballot in 2028. His appeal has always been uniquely personal, a once-in-a-generation political force with a connection to voters that few Republicans can replicate. Many members of the MAGA base turned out specifically for Trump, not necessarily for the Republican Party itself.
Republicans should also remember how narrow recent presidential elections have been. The 2016 election was decided by fewer than 100,000 votes across key swing states. In 2020, the margin was even smaller.
Instead of mocking Harris, Republicans would be wiser to study their own warning signs, MacKinnon concludes. Voter coalitions are fragile, and Americans have always had a soft spot for political comebacks. Harris may not be the Democratic nominee in 2028, but dismissing her now would be a mistake.
