The political landscape has shifted significantly since Vice President Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic presidential nominee, leading to improved prospects for her party in the races for the White House and Congress.
According to the latest analysis from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and The Hill, Harris currently has a 55% chance of defeating former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election—a notable jump from President Biden’s 44% before he stepped down and endorsed her on July 21.
This surge has also bolstered the Democratic Party’s chances in congressional races. Although Republicans remain the favorites to win the Senate and retain the House, their odds have slightly diminished with Harris at the top of the ticket.
The analysis shows the GOP’s chance of reclaiming the Senate majority at 67%, down from 78%, while the race for the House has tightened to a 56% likelihood of a Republican victory, down from 61%.
Harris’s rise in the polls, particularly in key battleground states, has energized Democratic voters. In swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—critical to the 2024 outcome—Harris now leads, whereas Biden trailed.
Her improved polling numbers in these states are key to her enhanced overall prospects.
The Democratic Party’s renewed enthusiasm is evident in their grassroots support. Harris’s campaign has seen a surge in volunteer signups and fundraising, both crucial for her bid to become the first female president in U.S. history.
Despite this momentum, the race remains highly competitive.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Trump had little impact on the overall dynamics, but the forecast model indicates that polling shifts in critical states could still influence the outcome.
Republicans continue to benefit from a favorable Senate map, with strong chances of picking up seats in West Virginia and Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D) faces a tough re-election bid. GOP candidate Tim Sheehy holds a 73% chance of winning against Tester in Montana, a race that could be pivotal in determining Senate control.
The House remains a close contest. With a narrow GOP majority and many races classified as toss-ups, the fight for control of the lower chamber could go down to the wire.
Fundraising and last-minute polling could still shift the balance in either direction, making the final weeks of the campaign critical.
As the 2024 election nears, Harris’s candidacy has injected fresh energy into the Democratic Party’s efforts to not only retain the White House but also make gains in Congress.
However, with close margins across the board, both parties face a tough and unpredictable battle ahead.
