As speculation builds around who will challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn in 2026, Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett says she’s still deciding whether to enter the race — but promises an answer soon.
Backstage at a Monday night fundraiser hosted by Dallas Democrats, Crockett told Howdy Politics she plans to make her decision by Thanksgiving, with a formal announcement on Dec. 8.
“No one else will know until Dec. 8, but I will know,” Crockett said. “I’ve given myself until the week of Thanksgiving.”
Despite holding off on an official declaration, Crockett already appears to be a strong contender. A recent survey by the National Republican Senatorial Committee of 566 likely Democratic primary voters found Crockett leading with 35% support. Former Congressman Colin Allred trailed at 20%, while hypothetical contenders Beto O’Rourke and U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro each earned 13%.
That poll, however, did not include Texas state Rep. James Talarico, who has quickly gained traction after announcing his campaign. Talarico has outpaced both Allred and Cornyn in early fundraising, signaling a potentially competitive Democratic field.
A separate University of Texas poll released last month showed Crockett nearly neck and neck with Allred among Democratic voters — 30% to 32%.
On the Republican side, Cornyn faces pressure from Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose MAGA-aligned base could pose a primary threat. The same University of Texas poll showed Paxton holding a two-point edge over Cornyn. Both men, however, remain unpopular statewide: Cornyn’s favorability stands at just 24%, compared with Paxton’s 28%.
The possibility of a bruising GOP primary has Democrats sensing an opening in a state where Republicans haven’t lost a statewide election since 1994.
“I’ve pulled together an amazing team to really see if we can do what I think we can do,” Crockett said. “And I’m taking advice from people who have run way bigger races than this.”
Crockett, known nationally for her outspoken style and social media presence, said she’s prepared to defy expectations.
“A lot of people don’t believe in Texas — and I understand why,” she said. “It’s been over 30 years. We’d have to run a different race. I would absolutely have to be a different candidate.”
her candidacy, Crockett is polling high among Democratic contenders in the race.
An early survey by the National Republican Senatorial Committee of 566 likely Democratic primary voters showed Crockett leading the pack at 35%, compared to former Congressman Colin Allred’s 20%. Hypothetical candidates Beto O’Rourke and U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro both pulled 13%.
However, that poll doesn’t include Texas Rep. James Talarico, who appears to be in strong shape at the moment, far outraising both Allred and Cornyn within just a few weeks of his campaign announcement.
A poll of likely Texas voters released late last month by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas shows a hypothetical run by Crockett in a near tie with Allred. She had 30% support in that survey, compared with Allred’s 32%.
In that same poll, MAGA acolyte Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has a two-point lead over incumbent Cornyn, who’s viewed as more of an old guard Republican.
However, both Republicans were underwater. Paxton has a favorability of 28%, and Cornyn was even lower at 24%. Meanwhile, Cornyn’s unfavorability rating stands at 46% and Paxton’s at 44%. Not exactly a glowing endorsement by likely Texas voters.
The possibility of the scandal-plagued Paxton besting Cornyn in the primary has caused Democrats to see a rare window of opportunity in a state where Republicans have won every statewide election since 1994.
“I’ve pulled together an amazing team to really see if we can do what I think we can do,” Crockett told Howdy Politics. “And then I’m taking advice from people who have run way bigger races than this.”
Even though many count Texas out when it comes to state-level Democratic victories, Crockett said she doesn’t plan to follow the old playbook, insinuating that her fresh approach might make all the difference. Also, her built-in name recognition and star power on the national stage can’t hurt.
“A lot of people don’t believe in Texas and I understand why — it’s been over 30 years [since Democrats held a statewide office],” Crockett said. “And we would have to run a different race. I would absolutely have to be a different candidate.”
