In a significant political development, two recent polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.
On Friday, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll of 1,174 registered voters indicated that Harris, who is considered the frontrunner to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee should he withdraw from the race, would narrowly defeat Trump in the upcoming election, garnering 50 percent to Trump’s 49 percent.
According to Newsweek, the poll was released just a day after an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll of 2,431 adults found that Harris would surpass Trump by three points overall, with Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 46 percent.
Among registered voters, the margin remained close, with Harris leading 49 percent to 47 percent.
Despite growing pressure, including from within his own party, for Biden to reconsider his reelection bid following a subpar performance at the June 27 CNN debate, Vice President Harris has maintained her support for Biden’s campaign and has not suggested any intention to replace him as the Democratic nominee.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey also highlighted that if Biden were to exit the presidential race, the Democratic chances against Trump would not significantly improve with any other potential candidates.
The poll indicated Biden would narrowly beat Trump by two points (50 percent to 48 percent) in a two-way race, a slight improvement from a previous tie in a poll conducted before the CNN debate.
Other Democratic figures showed similar competitive standings against Trump. California Governor Gavin Newsom led Trump by two points (50 percent to 48 percent), while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer tied with Trump at 49 percent.
Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, commented on the results, stating:
“Despite a series of cataclysmic political events, including Trump’s felony convictions and Biden’s abysmal debate performance, the race for the White House remains essentially unchanged. Biden needs to restore confidence among his party faithful that he can win. And Trump needs to tread very lightly during the Republican convention about Project 2025 and avoid positioning the GOP as too extreme.”
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll further revealed that Harris would perform better than Trump among women (52 percent to 44 percent) and Hispanics (56 percent to 40 percent).
Harris also enjoys robust support among Black voters, with 82 percent support among Black people and 86 percent among Black women, comparable to Biden’s results within these demographics.
During a press conference at the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, Biden reaffirmed his commitment to the 2024 race, saying:
“I’m not handing off to another generation; I’ve got to finish this job. I’ve got to finish this job because there’s so much at stake.”
